Rolls aren't random

[moomoo]

i just realized they arent completely random. i dont have proof of this but i just played a game where i had a "deja vu" moment.....i got a roll with steamroller and some other shit, it wouldnt work, so decided to reroll and upon that roll.....thats when the moment happened. I was like I've had this roll after rerolling before. like the 1st roll, and the subsequent roll. 2 exact same rolls ive had in a previous game. same thought process, same units t1-t6. i think think might extend with other players positions as well.

wondering if anyone else has noticed this? of course it *could* just be coincidence but I feel like ive had similar experiences not just this instance. played about 150 games so far. i dont think it really matters in terms of gameplay i mean its pretty much random for the most part in terms of variation, but not sure if "truly" random.

[moomoo]

also, sry for offtopic slightly but how does ELO work. say its 15/18

15 is the number change for win/lose for West side? so +15 points if you win. -15 points if you lose? 18 is same, but for East side

[sirmixalot]

Yes, that is a clear evidence that rolls aren't random. You are about to find a big conspiracy, dude. Keep asking questions!
Do you know that the earth isnt solid? On the inside there are nazis that hid there 70 years ago. There is even a movie about this so it can't be wrong, can it?



Rolls would certainly be random if you couldn't get the same units again. Or if you get Archers every round, right?
If you had already played a huge sum of 150 games and you had this experience a few times (!! ) this sounds totally legit. The illuminati controll your rolls man.

[moomoo]

you alright man?

[cam_breezy]

well............if you close all the bathroom doors in your house, turn on the oven and hold asdf and right click while chosing mode. you will get archers every time

[Diablo_]

Randomness seems less random than most people think. Let people make "random" sets of 10 numbers from 1-10 and let the same be done really randomly, in the latter you will see double and tripple (and more) occurences of the same number way more often than in the human created one. Getting the same towers every now and then is part of the randomness, otherwise it would not be random.

Funfact: Actually not many calculated things are really random at computers. Real randomness is not easy to achieve and most "random" systems are in fact only pseudo-random.

[eldryan]

to be 100% accurate, there is no "random" variable, obviously rolls aren't 100% random. in beta for example, if glitch the hero into an rr on lvl 15 you will always get same race choices, etc.

[SLSGuennter]

sirmixalot making fun here, and cant see, he is just making a fool of himself ^^
its kind of a randomize-sequenz used on a pc, so obviously its possible to "hack" into this and get the rolls u want, though i think its pretty hard. nevertheless it may be possible ur pc is "randoming" some numbers more often then others. especially if its an old game like this, and the programmers didnt gave much of a f*** to get the randomizing legit.

[supersexyy]

As far as you should be concerned, the rolls are random.

[Spzi]

nevertheless it may be possible ur pc is "randoming" some numbers more often then others. especially if its an old game

Yes, possible - and even to be expected! Not because the game is old, but because random does not mean "evenly distributed".
In fact, as Diablo_ stated correctly, if you ensure your have an even distribution (say, all tier 1 units show up the same amount of time) it isn't random anymore!

Take a 6-sided dice. You roll 10 times, and haven't rolled a single 6 so far. Does that mean the chance to roll a 6 increases? No, it's still 1/6 to roll a 6. And even if you rolled 1000 times without any 6, it's still 1/6 to roll a 6 on the next roll - just 1/6, not even a tiny bit more of a chance for the 6 to occur. Randomness does not care if the results are evenly distributed. In the very long run (tending to infinity) they will be evenly distributed, but at any given point in time random variations can be expected. The bigger the variation is, the less of a chance it has.
So it is possible that someone rolls archers each game first roll, though it's pretty unlikely. But if someone did so, it wouldn't mean random is broken.

But note humans expect even distributions from randomness. Some people in deed think the chance to roll a 6 increases when it didn't show up recently, though they are wrong. Humans expect rather even distributions from randomness.

Blizzard reacted to that intuitively wrong expectation and altered their random generator so that it now is purposely pseudo, "not random", producing more evenly distributed results than a true random generator would yield!

is a built-in feature of the Warcraft III engine that balances many chance-based abilities to prevent too many or too few activations.

source

Note that not all random events in warcraft use this balanced pseudo-random system. For all other events, every outcome is possible (including "it happens all the time" and "it never happens"), though with respectively varying chances.

[I_kill_satan]

Take a 6-sided dice. You roll 10 times, and haven't rolled a single 6 so far. Does that mean the chance to roll a 6 increases? No, it's still 1/6 to roll a 6. And even if you rolled 1000 times without any 6, it's still 1/6 to roll a 6 on the next roll - just 1/6, not even a tiny bit more of a chance for the 6 to occur.

Every single roll have 1/6 chance to get 6 and every turn inside 10 or so tries every try also have 1/6 one but if we tell about 100 or 1000 tries, its already not question of single try but its question of theory of chances. Its "highly unlikely" that u got 1000 attemps and never get 6. The numbers most likely will lay on the normal probability, and more attemps will lead to more smoothed distribution.

And it s not because "humans expect", its higher mathematics. I know that several russian professors were in the Moscow's casino's "black list" (untill gambling were forbidden) just because thay have better chances to win (and they did it) than casino in some games.

[Spzi]

Yes, rolling no 6 in 1000 rolls is highly unlikely, but possible. The chance is 0.000...7%, with 777 zeroes between . and 7.

That, of course, is due to maths, and not due to human expectations. My point was that humans expect the odds to be fair somehow, so that unlikely events actually never happen (as if they were impossible). Blizzard's pseudo random bends things this way. You'll score a crit if your unit can crit, although if it was pure chance, the possibility would exist that you never crit although you could.

To get back to topic: If I understood moomoo right, he got the very same units when rerolling. What are the odds for that?
So there are 13 races, each one has one unit for each of the 6 tiers. The chance to reroll the same 6 units is simply (1/13)^6, which means it would statistically happen once in 4'826'809 rerolls. This doesn't mean it happens after 4'826'808 rerolls - the chance for it to happen on the first reroll in the first game are the same as on any other later roll.

So what does it mean if it happens? It doesn't directly mean that rolls aren't random (as OP suggested, which is what I meant with human expectation). It's all fine if it just happens every ~5 million rerolls ... if it takes less than ~4'750'000 or more than ~5'250'000 rerolls for it to occur, then we had reason to talk about broken randomness.

[rolfdafiftynine]

sirmixalot making fun here, and cant see, he is just making a fool of himself ^^
its kind of a randomize-sequenz used on a pc, so obviously its possible to "hack" into this and get the rolls u want, though i think its pretty hard. nevertheless it may be possible ur pc is "randoming" some numbers more often then others. especially if its an old game like this, and the programmers didnt gave much of a f*** to get the randomizing legit.

I am totally aware of the calculation of random numbers of computers. Maybe you should just read all of it again especially the part with the 150 games, maybe you will get my point. (hint: Same point as cam_breezy and diablo.)

[I_kill_satan]

Not for critics something, just my point of view, if someone intrested

Also @Spzi thx man for discussion and arguing

That, of course, is due to maths, and not due to human expectations. My point was that humans expect the odds to be fair somehow, so that unlikely events actually never happen (as if they were impossible)

Every single fully same roll mean nothing, and even 2-3-4 same rolls in a row also. Theory of chances work (could give adequate odds) with 10+ rolls. If u do <10 tries that could be any result, and its not related with odds.

Also i should say that humans expectations of "fair" odds system is totally incorrect!

Blizzard's pseudo random bends things this way. You'll score a crit if your unit can crit, although if it was pure chance, the possibility would exist that you never crit although you could. So what does it mean if it happens? It doesn't directly mean that rolls aren't random (as OP suggested, which is what I meant with human expectation).

One game i had 6 volves on 10 lvl and they didnt score any crit to boss, without any sendings. I leaked and lose that game hard. Conclusion? Chance that u have no crits is more than real ==> blizzard random system is not force the events.

But i have also other expirience - i saw in Civ Wars that one player got "elite" unit (wich should be fully random) on his order! He told that he train to get elite warrior from start and he get it (idk how). So, probably something could be manipulated with pseudo random system.

[Spzi]

Note that not all random events in warcraft use this balanced pseudo-random system. For all other events, every outcome is possible (including "it happens all the time" and "it never happens")

So werewolves don't use blizzard's pseudo-random, ok.